Oldham 1–1 Rochdale: Result & Stats | League #43

Oldham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rochdale

V. Yoganathan 85'

J. Bird 5'

3/15/2025

League #43 · Round 38Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Oldham31%

×Draw25%

Rochdale44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.50

Oldham

1.22

Rochdale

1.50

Rochdale creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

1.15

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Oldham

1.15

Rochdale

2.00

allows per match

Oldham

1.00

Rochdale

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

56%

Oldham or Rochdale

75%

Draw or Rochdale

69%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

13%

Rochdale wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

70%

Oldham 2+ goals

34%

Oldham 3+ goals

12%

Rochdale 1+ goals

78%

Rochdale 2+ goals

44%

Rochdale 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

41%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Rochdale away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.15 + Rochdale defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Rochdale attack 2.00 + Oldham defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oldham scores more

31%

level

25%

Rochdale scores more

44%

Rochdale at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

31'

34'

46'

46'

58'

J. Uchegbulam← B. Waters

69'

I. Henderson← J. Bird

75'

J. Norwood← M. Fondop-Talum

75'

V. Yoganathan← T. Conlon

75'

E. Ebanks-Landell← T. Allarakhia

85'

V. Yoganathan

86'

L. Ayinde← A. Barlow

Oldham

Rochdale

13

26

14

28

18

▼

8

33

19

9

27

⚽

▼

Bird

7

▼

31

20

16

3

2

▼

Ogle

34

Leake

15

Rossiter

10

▼

Conlon

4

▼

Pett

18

▼

Waters

9

▼

Fondop-Ta

Manager: M. Mellon

46'▲K. Harratt←▼T. Pett

46'▲S. Hobson←▼R. Ogle

58'▲J. Uchegbulam←▼B. Waters

75'▲J. Norwood←▼M. Fondop-Talum

75'▲V. Yoganathan←▼T. Conlon

Oldham substitutes

26Harratt5Hobson17Uchegbulam30Norwood28Yoganathan13Dennis22Worthington

Manager: J. McNulty

69'▲I. Henderson←▼J. Bird

75'▲E. Ebanks-Landell←▼T. Allarakhia

86'▲L. Ayinde←▼A. Barlow

Rochdale substitutes

40Henderson6Ebanks-Landell15Ayinde31Weston12Kelly21McBride11Adu-Poku

League #43: Oldham 1–1 Rochdale

Oldham and Rochdale drew 1-1 in League #43 on March 15, 2025.

Goals: J. Bird (5'), V. Yoganathan (85').

The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham, Greater Manchester.

Oldham vs Rochdale — League #43 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #43: Oldham 1–1 Rochdale