Rochdale 0–1 Oldham: Result & Stats | League Two

Rochdale

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Oldham

9/25/2021

League Two · Round 9Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Rochdale39%

×Draw26%

Oldham35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.25

Rochdale

1.34

Oldham

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 111 away

1.24

creates per match

1.16

1.33

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Rochdale

1.24

Oldham

1.16

allows per match

Rochdale

1.33

Oldham

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

65%

Rochdale or Oldham

74%

Draw or Oldham

61%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

18%

Oldham wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

74%

Rochdale 2+ goals

39%

Rochdale 3+ goals

15%

Oldham 1+ goals

71%

Oldham 2+ goals

36%

Oldham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

53%

Oldham (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.24 + Oldham defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Oldham attack 1.16 + Rochdale defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rochdale scores more

39%

level

26%

Oldham scores more

35%

Rochdale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff