Rochdale 0–1 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Rochdale

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mansfield Town

J. Bowery 86'

3/22/2022

League Two · Round 25Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale36%

×Draw27%

Mansfield Town37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.29

Rochdale

1.27

Mansfield Town

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 141 away

1.38

creates per match

1.25

1.32

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Rochdale

1.38

Mansfield Town

1.25

allows per match

Rochdale

1.32

Mansfield Town

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

63%

Rochdale or Mansfield Town

73%

Draw or Mansfield Town

64%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

16%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

72%

Rochdale 2+ goals

36%

Rochdale 3+ goals

14%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

72%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

37%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

49%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rochdale scores more

36%

level

27%

Mansfield Town scores more

37%

Mansfield Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

R. Oates

Mansfield Town · F

8.0

Match Events

31'

Paul Downing

41'

C. Grant← J. Ball

63'

A. Newby← T. Campbell

73'

78'

82'

85'

86'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RochdaleMansfield

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots12

5Corners3

10Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots12

3On Target7

1Off Target2

6Blocked3

7Inside Box7

3Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

445Total Passes405

318Accurate Passes281

71%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1