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Rochdale vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lincoln
Lincoln
L. Montsma 68'
J. Jones 38'
12/5/2020League OneLeague One · Round 16Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Rochdale34%
×Draw26%
Lincoln40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.27
Lincoln
1.40

Lincoln creates 10% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 156 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.33
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Rochdale
1.54
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
60%
Rochdale or Lincoln
74%
Draw or Lincoln
66%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
15%
Lincoln wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
72%
Rochdale 2+ goals
36%
Rochdale 3+ goals
14%
Lincoln 1+ goals
75%
Lincoln 2+ goals
41%
Lincoln 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
46%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.33 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Rochdale defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rochdale scores more
34%
level
26%
Lincoln scores more
40%

Lincoln at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
L. MontsmaLincolnLincoln · D
8.0

Match Events

14'
Adetayo Edun
38'
J. Jones↳ A. Edun
54'
Matthew Lund
60'
K. Baah← O. Rathbone
68'
L. Montsma↳ J. Grant
73'
M. Done← S. Dooley
73'
J. Ryan← A. Newby
73'
A. Scully← B. Johnson
78'
M. Melbourne← A. Edun
90'
Eoghan O'Connell
90+2'
F. Tavares← S. Humphrys

Possession

46%Rochdale

Shots

7Rochdale

Pass accuracy

49%Rochdale

Statistics

RochdaleLincoln
Overview
46%Possession54%
7Total Shots13
2Corners5
12Fouls10
Shots
7Total Shots13
2On Target6
3Off Target4
2Blocked3
4Inside Box7
3Outside Box6
Passing
46%Possession54%
450Total Passes514
360Accurate Passes428
80%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

League One: Rochdale 0–2 Lincoln

Lincoln beat Rochdale 2-0 in League One on December 5, 2020.

Goals: J. Jones (38'), L. Montsma (68').

Lincoln controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Crown Oil Arena in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.