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Rochdale vs Doncaster — League One 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Doncaster
Doncaster
10/13/2018League OneLeague One · Round 13Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Rochdale38%
×Draw25%
Doncaster37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.40
Doncaster
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 108 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.19
Doncaster
1.13

allows per match

Rochdale
1.62
Doncaster
1.61

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
63%
Rochdale or Doncaster
75%
Draw or Doncaster
62%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
17%
Doncaster wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
75%
Rochdale 2+ goals
41%
Rochdale 3+ goals
17%
Doncaster 1+ goals
75%
Doncaster 2+ goals
40%
Doncaster 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
51%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.62 · 63 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.19 + Doncaster defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.40

Doncaster attack 1.13 + Rochdale defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rochdale scores more
38%
level
25%
Doncaster scores more
37%

Rochdale at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rochdale vs Doncaster

Doncaster beat Rochdale 3-2 in League One on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at Crown Oil Arena in Rochdale.