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Doncaster vs Rochdale — League One 2018

Doncaster
Doncaster
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rochdale
Rochdale
1/19/2021League OneLeague One · Round 23The Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Doncaster46%
×Draw24%
Rochdale30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.65
Rochdale
1.27

Doncaster creates 30% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 64 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.40
Rochdale
1.30

allows per match

Doncaster
1.23
Rochdale
1.89

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
70%
Doncaster or Rochdale
76%
Draw or Rochdale
54%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
24%
Rochdale wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
81%
Doncaster 2+ goals
49%
Doncaster 3+ goals
23%
Rochdale 1+ goals
72%
Rochdale 2+ goals
36%
Rochdale 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
61%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.40 + Rochdale defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

Rochdale attack 1.30 + Doncaster defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Doncaster scores more
46%
level
24%
Rochdale scores more
30%

Doncaster at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Doncaster 1–0 Rochdale

Doncaster beat Rochdale 1-0 in League One on January 19, 2021.

The match was played at The Keepmoat Stadium in Doncaster, South Yorkshire.