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Rochdale vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
Preview
15:00
Crewe
Crewe
1/16/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 25Spotland Stadium
Big match
40%
Rochdale
model favours
40%26%34%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale40%
×Draw26%
Crewe34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.38
Crewe
1.24

Rochdale creates 11% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 122 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.38
Crewe
1.16

allows per match

Rochdale
1.32
Crewe
1.38

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
66%
Rochdale or Crewe
74%
Draw or Crewe
60%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
19%
Crewe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
75%
Rochdale 2+ goals
40%
Rochdale 3+ goals
16%
Crewe 1+ goals
71%
Crewe 2+ goals
35%
Crewe 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
54%
Crewe (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Crewe defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Crewe attack 1.16 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rochdale scores more
40%
level
26%
Crewe scores more
34%

Rochdale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Their last 9 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Rochdale
Balanced
Crewe
Balanced
52%Possession50%
70%Pass accuracy70%
10.6ShotsBiggest gap11.3
—xG1.44
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
RochdaleCrewe

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

3
Rochdale
4
Draws
2
Crewe
Avg goals: 3.7BTTS: 67%
1–11–21–13–32–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Rochdale
DLDDW
Crewe
WDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rochdale host Crewe

January 16, 2027: Rochdale take on Crewe in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rochdale host Crewe at Spotland Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.