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Crewe vs Rochdale — League One 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rochdale
Rochdale
C. Kirk 90'
M. Done 90+7'
4/24/2021League OneLeague One · Round 44Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Crewe40%
×Draw24%
Rochdale36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.56
Rochdale
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 72 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.26
Rochdale
1.38

allows per match

Crewe
1.58
Rochdale
1.85

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
64%
Crewe or Rochdale
76%
Draw or Rochdale
60%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
20%
Rochdale wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
79%
Crewe 2+ goals
46%
Crewe 3+ goals
21%
Rochdale 1+ goals
77%
Rochdale 2+ goals
43%
Rochdale 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
52%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.26 + Rochdale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Crewe defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crewe scores more
40%
level
24%
Rochdale scores more
36%

Crewe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
W. JääskeläinenCreweCrewe · G
7.9

Match Events

29'
R. Wintle← L. Murphy
52'
Antony Evans
69'
S. Humphrys← C. Grant
69'
M. Done← S. Dooley
77'
K. Baah← P. McShane
78'
C. Ainley← A. Evans
78'
O. Dale← C. Porter
85'
C. Shaughnessy← O. Rathbone
89'
Eoghan O'Connell
90+5'
O. Beckles← C. Kirk
90'
C. Kirk
90+7'
M. Done↳ C. Shaughnessy

Possession

52%Crewe

Shots

9Crewe

Pass accuracy

51%Crewe

Statistics

CreweRochdale
Overview
52%Possession48%
9Total Shots17
3Corners9
12Fouls7
Shots
9Total Shots17
6On Target7
2Off Target4
1Blocked6
5Inside Box9
4Outside Box8
Passing
52%Possession48%
432Total Passes378
339Accurate Passes289
78%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
6Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls7
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Crewe vs Rochdale

Crewe and Rochdale drew 1-1 in League One on April 24, 2021.

Goals: C. Kirk (90'), M. Done (90+7').

Crewe controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 17.

The match was played at Alexandra Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.