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Rochdale vs Coventry — League One 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Coventry
Coventry
A. Wilbraham 72'
M. Godden 71'
M. Rose 4'
2/22/2020League OneLeague One · Round 35Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Rochdale36%
×Draw25%
Coventry39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.37
Coventry
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 44 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.33
Coventry
1.32

allows per match

Rochdale
1.54
Coventry
1.41

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
61%
Rochdale or Coventry
75%
Draw or Coventry
64%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
16%
Coventry wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
75%
Rochdale 2+ goals
40%
Rochdale 3+ goals
16%
Coventry 1+ goals
76%
Coventry 2+ goals
42%
Coventry 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
48%
Coventry (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.33 + Coventry defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.37

Coventry attack 1.32 + Rochdale defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rochdale scores more
36%
level
25%
Coventry scores more
39%

Coventry at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
L. WalshCoventryCoventry · M
8.0

Match Events

4'
M. Rose↳ L. Walsh
21'
Sam McCallum
39'
M. Done← K. Baah
41'
Luke Matheson
46'
J. McNulty← E. OConnell
50'
Paul McShane
63'
A. Wilbraham← S. Dooley
71'
M. Godden↳ J. Allen
72'
A. Wilbraham↳ J. Ryan
78'
Ian Henderson
85'
J. Shipley← J. Allen
86'
M. Biamou← M. Godden

Possession

53%Rochdale

Shots

11Rochdale

Pass accuracy

50%Rochdale

Statistics

RochdaleCoventry
Overview
53%Possession47%
11Total Shots16
4Corners9
10Fouls8
Shots
11Total Shots16
4On Target4
3Off Target7
4Blocked5
9Inside Box11
2Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
491Total Passes403
395Accurate Passes321
80%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls8
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Rochdale vs Coventry

Coventry beat Rochdale 2-1 in League One on February 22, 2020.

Goals: M. Rose (4'), M. Godden (71'), A. Wilbraham (72').

Rochdale controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Crown Oil Arena in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.