Rochdale 1–0 Charlton: Result & Stats | League One

Rochdale

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Charlton

I. Henderson 4'

10/27/2018

League One · Round 16Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Rochdale35%

×Draw26%

Charlton39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.38

Rochdale

1.29

Charlton

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 143 away

1.33

creates per match

1.22

1.54

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Rochdale

1.33

Charlton

1.22

allows per match

Rochdale

1.54

Charlton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

61%

Rochdale or Charlton

74%

Draw or Charlton

65%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

15%

Charlton wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

72%

Rochdale 2+ goals

37%

Rochdale 3+ goals

14%

Charlton 1+ goals

75%

Charlton 2+ goals

40%

Charlton 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

47%

Charlton (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.33 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Charlton attack 1.22 + Rochdale defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rochdale scores more

35%

level

26%

Charlton scores more

39%

Charlton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

45'

46'

48'

49'

61'

T. Fosu← J. Ward

67'

C. Andrew← J. Williams

67'

D. Perkins← O. Rathbone

76'

Vetokele← K. Ahearne-Grant

82'

Josh Cullen

90+1'

A. Cannon← B. Inman

Rochdale

Charlton

21

6

20

15

4

▼

17

24

2

16

▼

Ward

9

Taylor

18

▼

22

2

6

5

21

7

19

▼

Inman

10

Camps

11

▼

Williams

14

▼

Rathbone

40

⚽

Henderson

Manager: K. Hill

67'▲C. Andrew←▼J. Williams

67'▲D. Perkins←▼O. Rathbone

90+1'▲A. Cannon←▼B. Inman

Rochdale substitutes

9Andrew17Perkins27Cannon1Lillis8Williams16Done26Clough

Manager: L. Bowyer

46'▲B. Reeves←▼K. Bielik

61'▲T. Fosu←▼J. Ward

76'▲Vetokele←▼K. Ahearne-Grant

Charlton substitutes

12Reeves11Fosu14Vetokele1Phillips23Sarr25Ajose32Lapslie