Rochdale 2–0 Carlisle: Result & Stats | League Two

Rochdale

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Carlisle

C. Grant 81'

L. Kelly 10' (pen)

3/29/2022

League Two · Round 30Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale40%

×Draw27%

Carlisle33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.20

Rochdale

1.36

Carlisle

1.20

Rochdale creates 13% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 115 away

1.38

creates per match

1.07

1.32

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Rochdale

1.38

Carlisle

1.07

allows per match

Rochdale

1.32

Carlisle

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

67%

Rochdale or Carlisle

73%

Draw or Carlisle

60%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

19%

Carlisle wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

74%

Rochdale 2+ goals

39%

Rochdale 3+ goals

16%

Carlisle 1+ goals

70%

Carlisle 2+ goals

34%

Carlisle 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

55%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rochdale scores more

40%

level

27%

Carlisle scores more

33%

Rochdale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

C. O'Keeffe

Rochdale · M

7.5

Match Events

5'

Dynel Simeu

10'

L. KellyPenalty

60'

T. Sho-Silva← K. Dennis

60'

63'

67'

70'

76'

81'

C. Grant↳ C. O'Keeffe

84'

G. Broadbent← L. Kelly

88'

J. McNulty← E. OConnell

90+3'

Brennan Dickenson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RochdaleCarlisle

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots6

1Corners6

11Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots6

2On Target2

5Off Target3

1Blocked1

4Inside Box3

4Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

371Total Passes358

235Accurate Passes225

63%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0