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Rochdale vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
Preview
15:00
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
12/19/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 20Spotland Stadium
Big match
40%
Rochdale
model favours
40%26%34%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale40%
×Draw26%
Bristol Rovers34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.40
Bristol Rovers
1.27

Rochdale creates 10% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 59 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.38
Bristol Rovers
1.22

allows per match

Rochdale
1.32
Bristol Rovers
1.42

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
66%
Rochdale or Bristol Rovers
74%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
60%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
19%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
75%
Rochdale 2+ goals
41%
Rochdale 3+ goals
17%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
72%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
36%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
54%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bristol Rovers attack 1.22 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rochdale scores more
40%
level
26%
Bristol Rovers scores more
34%

Rochdale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Rochdale
Balanced
Bristol Rovers
Defensively solid
52%Possession52%
70%Pass accuracy66%
10.4ShotsBiggest gap12.5
—xG1.38
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
RochdaleBristol Rovers

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Rochdale
2
Draws
2
Bristol Rovers
Avg goals: 3.6BTTS: 80%
3–42–42–11–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Rochdale
DLDDW
Rovers
DDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rochdale host Bristol Rovers

December 19, 2026: Rochdale take on Bristol Rovers in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rochdale host Bristol Rovers at Spotland Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.