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Bristol Rovers vs Rochdale — League One 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
CANC
15:00
Rochdale
Rochdale
3/28/2020League OneLeague One · Round 40Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Bristol Rovers41%
×Draw25%
Rochdale34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.52
Rochdale
1.36

Bristol Rovers creates 12% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 72 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.20
Rochdale
1.38

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.34
Rochdale
1.85

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
66%
Bristol Rovers or Rochdale
75%
Draw or Rochdale
59%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
20%
Rochdale wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
78%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
45%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
20%
Rochdale 1+ goals
74%
Rochdale 2+ goals
39%
Rochdale 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
55%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.34 · 133 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.20 + Rochdale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
41%
level
25%
Rochdale scores more
34%

Bristol Rovers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bristol Rovers host Rochdale

March 28, 2020: Bristol Rovers take on Rochdale in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bristol Rovers host Rochdale at Memorial Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.