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Rochdale vs Bradford — League Two 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Bradford
Bradford
S. Banks 82'
E. Ebanks-Landell 74' (OG)
S. Stubbs 5'
4/15/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 42Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale39%
×Draw27%
Bradford35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.31
Bradford
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 139 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.38
Bradford
1.15

allows per match

Rochdale
1.32
Bradford
1.24

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Bradford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
65%
Rochdale or Bradford
73%
Draw or Bradford
61%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
17%
Bradford wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
73%
Rochdale 2+ goals
38%
Rochdale 3+ goals
14%
Bradford 1+ goals
71%
Bradford 2+ goals
35%
Bradford 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
53%
Bradford (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bradford attack 1.15 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rochdale scores more
39%
level
27%
Bradford scores more
35%

Rochdale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
R. SmallwoodBradfordBradford · M
8.3

Match Events

-5'
Sam Graham
5'
S. Stubbs↳ R. Smallwood
16'
Romoney Crichlow-Noble
67'
T. Nevers← H. Chapman
71'
D. Rodney← A. Odoh
71'
T. Sinclair← D. Lloyd-McGoldrick
74'
E. Ebanks-LandellOwn goal
78'
J. Ball← E. Brierley
82'
S. Banks
85'
C. Kelly← J. Walker
85'
M. Derbyshire← S. Banks
90+2'
E. Osadebe← A. Cook
90+2'
R. East← A. Gilliead

Possession

55%Rochdale

Shots

9Rochdale

Pass accuracy

52%Rochdale

Statistics

RochdaleBradford
Overview
55%Possession45%
9Total Shots13
1Corners4
12Fouls8
Shots
9Total Shots13
1On Target5
4Off Target5
4Blocked3
4Inside Box7
5Outside Box6
Passing
55%Possession45%
521Total Passes426
423Accurate Passes319
81%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

League Two: Rochdale 0–3 Bradford

Bradford beat Rochdale 3-0 in League Two on April 15, 2023.

Goals: S. Stubbs (5'), E. Ebanks-Landell (74' o.g.), S. Banks (82').

Rochdale controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Crown Oil Arena in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.