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Rochdale vs AFC Wimbledon — League Two 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
T. Sinclair 66'
J. Davison 64'
A. Assal 39'
10/22/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 16Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale39%
×Draw28%
AFC Wimbledon33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.24
AFC Wimbledon
1.13

Rochdale creates 10% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 73 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.38
AFC Wimbledon
0.93

allows per match

Rochdale
1.32
AFC Wimbledon
1.10

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
67%
Rochdale or AFC Wimbledon
72%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
61%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
17%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
71%
Rochdale 2+ goals
35%
Rochdale 3+ goals
13%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
68%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
31%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
54%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.10 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.93 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rochdale scores more
39%
level
28%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
33%

Rochdale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
E. ChislettAFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon · M
7.3

Match Events

20'
Ryley Towler
39'
A. Assal
59'
Chris Gunter
64'
J. Davison↳ J. Currie
65'
I. Henderson← C. Malley
65'
C. John← J. Keohane
66'
T. Sinclair↳ D. Rodney
79'
Ethan Ebanks-Landell
86'
Ayoub Assal
86'
R. Tulloch← A. Odoh
89'
I. Ogundere← A. Assal
90+3'
Alex Woodyard
90+1'
B. Nelson← S. Graham
90+3'
K. Frimpong← A. Woodyard

Possession

48%Rochdale

Shots

11Rochdale

Pass accuracy

50%Rochdale

Statistics

RochdaleAFC
Overview
48%Possession52%
11Total Shots9
3Corners4
13Fouls18
Shots
11Total Shots9
3On Target5
3Off Target0
5Blocked4
9Inside Box6
2Outside Box3
Passing
48%Possession52%
312Total Passes328
186Accurate Passes197
60%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls18
1Yellow Cards4
1Offsides2

League Two: Rochdale 1–2 AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon beat Rochdale 2-1 in League Two on October 22, 2022.

Goals: A. Assal (39'), J. Davison (64'), T. Sinclair (66').

AFC Wimbledon controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Crown Oil Arena in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.