Rocha 0–2 Rampla Juniors: Result & Stats

Rocha

FT

0 – 2

Rampla Juniors

4/24/2016

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 7Estadio Dr. Mario Sobrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Rocha37%

×Draw28%

Rampla Juniors35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochaExpected goals in this matchRampla Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.15

Rocha

1.21

Rampla Juniors

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 78 away

1.19

creates per match

1.00

1.30

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Rocha

1.19

Rampla Juniors

1.00

allows per match

Rocha

1.30

Rampla Juniors

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rocha+0.00on par

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rocha ↓

Rampla Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rocha or draw

65%

Rocha or Rampla Juniors

72%

Draw or Rampla Juniors

63%

Winning margin

Rocha wins by 2+

16%

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rocha 1+ goals

70%

Rocha 2+ goals

34%

Rocha 3+ goals

12%

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals

68%

Rampla Juniors 2+ goals

32%

Rampla Juniors 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rocha (draw refunded)

52%

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rocha at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

Rampla Juniors away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rocha attack 1.19 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Rampla Juniors attack 1.00 + Rocha defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rocha scores more

37%

level

28%

Rampla Juniors scores more

35%

Rocha at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rocha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff