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Roces vs Urraca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Roces
Roces
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Urraca
Urraca
11/27/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Campo de Fútbol Covadonga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Roces27%
×Draw27%
Urraca45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roces
0.99
Urraca
1.36

Urraca creates 37% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 79 away

creates per match

Roces
0.86
Urraca
0.86

allows per match

Roces
1.86
Urraca
1.13

finishing

Roces+0.00on par
Urraca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roces ↓

Urraca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Roces or draw
55%
Roces or Urraca
73%
Draw or Urraca
73%

Winning margin

Roces wins by 2+
10%
Urraca wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Roces 1+ goals
63%
Roces 2+ goals
26%
Roces 3+ goals
8%
Urraca 1+ goals
74%
Urraca 2+ goals
39%
Urraca 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Roces (draw refunded)
38%
Urraca (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roces at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Urraca away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roces attack 0.86 + Urraca defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Urraca attack 0.86 + Roces defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Roces scores more
27%
level
27%
Urraca scores more
45%

Urraca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Urraca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roces vs Urraca

Roces and Urraca drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Covadonga in Gijón.