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Roces vs Tuilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Roces
Roces
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tuilla
Tuilla
11/16/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Campo de Fútbol Covadonga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Roces29%
×Draw25%
Tuilla46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roces
1.16
Tuilla
1.52

Tuilla creates 31% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 110 away

creates per match

Roces
0.86
Tuilla
1.17

allows per match

Roces
1.86
Tuilla
1.45

finishing

Roces+0.00on par
Tuilla+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roces ↓

Tuilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Roces or draw
54%
Roces or Tuilla
75%
Draw or Tuilla
71%

Winning margin

Roces wins by 2+
12%
Tuilla wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Roces 1+ goals
69%
Roces 2+ goals
32%
Roces 3+ goals
11%
Tuilla 1+ goals
78%
Tuilla 2+ goals
45%
Tuilla 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Roces (draw refunded)
39%
Tuilla (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roces at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Tuilla away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roces attack 0.86 + Tuilla defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.16

Tuilla attack 1.17 + Roces defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Roces scores more
29%
level
25%
Tuilla scores more
46%

Tuilla at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tuilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roces vs Tuilla

Tuilla beat Roces 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Covadonga in Gijón.