Roces 0–0 Real Oviedo II: Result & Stats

Roces

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Oviedo II

1/15/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Campo de Fútbol Covadonga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Roces15%

×Draw22%

Real Oviedo II63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RocesExpected goals in this matchReal Oviedo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.88

Roces

0.80

Real Oviedo II

1.88

Real Oviedo II creates 135% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 36 away

0.86

creates per match

1.89

1.86

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Roces

0.86

Real Oviedo II

1.89

allows per match

Roces

1.86

Real Oviedo II

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roces+0.00on par

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roces ↓

Real Oviedo II →

0–07%

0–113%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Roces or draw

37%

Roces or Real Oviedo II

78%

Draw or Real Oviedo II

85%

Winning margin

Roces wins by 2+

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Roces 1+ goals

55%

Roces 2+ goals

19%

Roces 3+ goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

85%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

56%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Roces (draw refunded)

20%

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Roces at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Roces attack 0.86 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Real Oviedo II attack 1.89 + Roces defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Roces scores more

15%

level

22%

Real Oviedo II scores more

63%

Real Oviedo II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff