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Roces vs Lealtad — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Roces
Roces
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Lealtad
Lealtad
3/26/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Campo de Fútbol Covadonga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Roces19%
×Draw25%
Lealtad57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roces
0.82
Lealtad
1.64

Lealtad creates 100% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 82 away

creates per match

Roces
0.86
Lealtad
1.41

allows per match

Roces
1.86
Lealtad
0.79

finishing

Roces+0.00on par
Lealtad+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roces ↓

Lealtad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–212%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Roces or draw
43%
Roces or Lealtad
75%
Draw or Lealtad
81%

Winning margin

Roces wins by 2+
6%
Lealtad wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Roces 1+ goals
56%
Roces 2+ goals
20%
Roces 3+ goals
5%
Lealtad 1+ goals
81%
Lealtad 2+ goals
49%
Lealtad 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Roces (draw refunded)
25%
Lealtad (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roces at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Lealtad away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roces attack 0.86 + Lealtad defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.82

Lealtad attack 1.41 + Roces defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Roces scores more
19%
level
25%
Lealtad scores more
57%

Lealtad at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lealtad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roces vs Lealtad

Lealtad beat Roces 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Covadonga in Gijón.