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Roces vs Langreo II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Roces
Roces
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Langreo II
Langreo II
3/12/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Campo de Fútbol Covadonga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Roces39%
×Draw25%
Langreo II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roces
1.51
Langreo II
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 19 away

creates per match

Roces
0.86
Langreo II
1.00

allows per match

Roces
1.86
Langreo II
2.16

finishing

Roces+0.00on par
Langreo II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roces ↓

Langreo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Roces or draw
64%
Roces or Langreo II
75%
Draw or Langreo II
61%

Winning margin

Roces wins by 2+
19%
Langreo II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Roces 1+ goals
78%
Roces 2+ goals
44%
Roces 3+ goals
19%
Langreo II 1+ goals
76%
Langreo II 2+ goals
42%
Langreo II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Roces (draw refunded)
52%
Langreo II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roces at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Langreo II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roces attack 0.86 + Langreo II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.51

Langreo II attack 1.00 + Roces defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Roces scores more
39%
level
25%
Langreo II scores more
36%

Roces at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Roces will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roces vs Langreo II

Roces beat Langreo II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Covadonga in Gijón.