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Roces vs Condal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Roces
Roces
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Condal
Condal
3/8/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Campo de Fútbol Covadonga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Roces38%
×Draw27%
Condal36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roces
1.31
Condal
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 77 away

creates per match

Roces
0.86
Condal
0.66

allows per match

Roces
1.86
Condal
1.77

finishing

Roces+0.00on par
Condal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roces ↓

Condal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Roces or draw
64%
Roces or Condal
73%
Draw or Condal
62%

Winning margin

Roces wins by 2+
17%
Condal wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Roces 1+ goals
73%
Roces 2+ goals
38%
Roces 3+ goals
14%
Condal 1+ goals
72%
Condal 2+ goals
36%
Condal 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Roces (draw refunded)
52%
Condal (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roces at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Condal away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.77 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roces attack 0.86 + Condal defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.31

Condal attack 0.66 + Roces defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Roces scores more
38%
level
27%
Condal scores more
36%

Roces at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Roces will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Roces 0 – 1 Condal

Condal beat Roces 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Covadonga in Gijón.