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Roces vs Ceares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Roces
Roces
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ceares
Ceares
2/22/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Campo de Fútbol Covadonga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Roces25%
×Draw26%
Ceares49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roces
1.02
Ceares
1.53

Ceares creates 50% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 93 away

creates per match

Roces
0.86
Ceares
1.20

allows per match

Roces
1.86
Ceares
1.19

finishing

Roces+0.00on par
Ceares+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roces ↓

Ceares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Roces or draw
51%
Roces or Ceares
74%
Draw or Ceares
75%

Winning margin

Roces wins by 2+
9%
Ceares wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Roces 1+ goals
64%
Roces 2+ goals
27%
Roces 3+ goals
8%
Ceares 1+ goals
78%
Ceares 2+ goals
45%
Ceares 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Roces (draw refunded)
34%
Ceares (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roces at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Ceares away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.19 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roces attack 0.86 + Ceares defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Ceares attack 1.20 + Roces defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Roces scores more
25%
level
26%
Ceares scores more
49%

Ceares at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ceares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roces vs Ceares

Ceares beat Roces 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Covadonga in Gijón.