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Robres vs Sariñena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Robres
Robres
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sariñena
Sariñena
2/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 18Estadio San Blas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Robres41%
×Draw28%
Sariñena31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Robres
1.26
Sariñena
1.06

Robres creates 19% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 33 away

creates per match

Robres
1.37
Sariñena
1.12

allows per match

Robres
1.00
Sariñena
1.15

finishing

Robres+0.00on par
Sariñena+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Robres ↓

Sariñena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Robres or draw
69%
Robres or Sariñena
72%
Draw or Sariñena
59%

Winning margin

Robres wins by 2+
18%
Sariñena wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Robres 1+ goals
72%
Robres 2+ goals
36%
Robres 3+ goals
13%
Sariñena 1+ goals
65%
Sariñena 2+ goals
29%
Sariñena 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Robres (draw refunded)
57%
Sariñena (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Robres at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.00 · 79 matches

Sariñena away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Robres attack 1.37 + Sariñena defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Sariñena attack 1.12 + Robres defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Robres scores more
41%
level
28%
Sariñena scores more
31%

Robres at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Robres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Robres 1–2 Sariñena

Sariñena beat Robres 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Blas in Robres.