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Robin Hood vs Slee Juniors — Eerste Divisie 2019

Robin Hood
Robin Hood
FT
2 – 1
Slee Juniors
Slee Juniors
2/4/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 4Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Robin Hood62%
×Draw18%
Slee Juniors20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Robin Hood
2.71
Slee Juniors
1.50

Robin Hood creates 81% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 12 away

creates per match

Robin Hood
2.92
Slee Juniors
2.25

allows per match

Robin Hood
0.74
Slee Juniors
2.50

finishing

Robin Hood+0.00on par
Slee Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Robin Hood ↓

Slee Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Robin Hood or draw
80%
Robin Hood or Slee Juniors
82%
Draw or Slee Juniors
38%

Winning margin

Robin Hood wins by 2+
42%
Slee Juniors wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Robin Hood 1+ goals
93%
Robin Hood 2+ goals
75%
Robin Hood 3+ goals
50%
Slee Juniors 1+ goals
78%
Slee Juniors 2+ goals
44%
Slee Juniors 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Robin Hood (draw refunded)
76%
Slee Juniors (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Robin Hood at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.74 · 61 matches

Slee Juniors away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Robin Hood attack 2.92 + Slee Juniors defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.71

Slee Juniors attack 2.25 + Robin Hood defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Robin Hood scores more
62%
level
18%
Slee Juniors scores more
20%

Robin Hood at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Robin Hood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Robin Hood vs Slee Juniors

Robin Hood beat Slee Juniors 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on February 4, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.