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Robin Hood vs Santos — Eerste Divisie 2019

Robin Hood
Robin Hood
FT
3 – 0
Santos
Santos
3/27/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 5Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Robin Hood83%
×Draw11%
Santos6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Robin Hood
3.33
Santos
0.83

Robin Hood creates 301% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 27 away

creates per match

Robin Hood
2.92
Santos
0.93

allows per match

Robin Hood
0.74
Santos
3.74

finishing

Robin Hood+0.00on par
Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Robin Hood ↓

Santos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Robin Hood or draw
94%
Robin Hood or Santos
89%
Draw or Santos
17%

Winning margin

Robin Hood wins by 2+
66%
Santos wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Robin Hood 1+ goals
96%
Robin Hood 2+ goals
84%
Robin Hood 3+ goals
63%
Santos 1+ goals
56%
Santos 2+ goals
20%
Santos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Robin Hood (draw refunded)
93%
Santos (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Robin Hood at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.74 · 61 matches

Santos away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Robin Hood attack 2.92 + Santos defence 3.74 → ÷2 → 3.33

Santos attack 0.93 + Robin Hood defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Robin Hood scores more
83%
level
11%
Santos scores more
6%

Robin Hood at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Robin Hood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Robin Hood 3–0 Santos

Robin Hood beat Santos 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.