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Robin Hood vs Leo Victor — Eerste Divisie 2019

Robin Hood
Robin Hood
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Leo Victor
Leo Victor
5/7/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Robin Hood59%
×Draw20%
Leo Victor21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Robin Hood
2.26
Leo Victor
1.27

Robin Hood creates 78% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 57 away

creates per match

Robin Hood
2.92
Leo Victor
1.79

allows per match

Robin Hood
0.74
Leo Victor
1.60

finishing

Robin Hood+0.00on par
Leo Victor+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Robin Hood ↓

Leo Victor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Robin Hood or draw
79%
Robin Hood or Leo Victor
80%
Draw or Leo Victor
41%

Winning margin

Robin Hood wins by 2+
37%
Leo Victor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Robin Hood 1+ goals
89%
Robin Hood 2+ goals
66%
Robin Hood 3+ goals
39%
Leo Victor 1+ goals
72%
Leo Victor 2+ goals
36%
Leo Victor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Robin Hood (draw refunded)
74%
Leo Victor (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Robin Hood at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.74 · 61 matches

Leo Victor away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Robin Hood attack 2.92 + Leo Victor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.26

Leo Victor attack 1.79 + Robin Hood defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Robin Hood scores more
59%
level
20%
Leo Victor scores more
21%

Robin Hood at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Robin Hood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Robin Hood 1–1 Leo Victor

Robin Hood and Leo Victor drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on May 7, 2026.