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Robin Hood vs Inter Moengotapoe — Eerste Divisie 2019

Robin Hood
Robin Hoodadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Inter Moengotapoe
Inter Moengotapoe
5/17/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Robin Hood50%
×Draw21%
Inter Moengotapoe28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Robin Hood
2.11
Inter Moengotapoe
1.55

Robin Hood creates 36% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 64 away

creates per match

Robin Hood
2.92
Inter Moengotapoe
2.36

allows per match

Robin Hood
0.74
Inter Moengotapoe
1.30

finishing

Robin Hood+0.00on par
Inter Moengotapoe+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Robin Hood ↓

Inter Moengotapoe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Robin Hood or draw
72%
Robin Hood or Inter Moengotapoe
79%
Draw or Inter Moengotapoe
50%

Winning margin

Robin Hood wins by 2+
30%
Inter Moengotapoe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Robin Hood 1+ goals
88%
Robin Hood 2+ goals
62%
Robin Hood 3+ goals
35%
Inter Moengotapoe 1+ goals
79%
Inter Moengotapoe 2+ goals
46%
Inter Moengotapoe 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Robin Hood (draw refunded)
64%
Inter Moengotapoe (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Robin Hood at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.74 · 61 matches

Inter Moengotapoe away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Robin Hood attack 2.92 + Inter Moengotapoe defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 2.11

Inter Moengotapoe attack 2.36 + Robin Hood defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Robin Hood scores more
50%
level
21%
Inter Moengotapoe scores more
28%

Robin Hood at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Robin Hood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Robin Hood 1 – 0 Inter Moengotapoe

Robin Hood beat Inter Moengotapoe 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on May 17, 2026.