Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Robin Hood vs Flora Tallinn — Eerste Divisie 2019

Robin Hood
Robin Hood
FT
10 – 1
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
6/18/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 21Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Robin Hood70%
×Draw17%
Flora Tallinn13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Robin Hood
2.58
Flora Tallinn
1.04

Robin Hood creates 148% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 12 away

creates per match

Robin Hood
2.92
Flora Tallinn
1.33

allows per match

Robin Hood
0.74
Flora Tallinn
2.25

finishing

Robin Hood+0.00on par
Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Robin Hood ↓

Flora Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Robin Hood or draw
87%
Robin Hood or Flora Tallinn
83%
Draw or Flora Tallinn
30%

Winning margin

Robin Hood wins by 2+
48%
Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Robin Hood 1+ goals
92%
Robin Hood 2+ goals
72%
Robin Hood 3+ goals
47%
Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
65%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
28%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Robin Hood (draw refunded)
84%
Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Robin Hood at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.74 · 61 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Robin Hood attack 2.92 + Flora Tallinn defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.58

Flora Tallinn attack 1.33 + Robin Hood defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Robin Hood scores more
70%
level
17%
Flora Tallinn scores more
13%

Robin Hood at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Robin Hood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Robin Hood 10–1 Flora Tallinn

Robin Hood beat Flora Tallinn 10-1 in Eerste Divisie on June 18, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.