Robi Shapira 0–5 Ironi Tiberias: Result & Stats

Robi Shapira

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 0

Ironi Tiberias

10/26/2021

State Cup · 7th RoundAthos Haifa Lot 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Robi Shapira14%

×Draw20%

Ironi Tiberias66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Robi ShapiraExpected goals in this matchIroni Tiberias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

2.08

Robi Shapira

0.83

Ironi Tiberias

2.08

Ironi Tiberias creates 151% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

1.83

2.33

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Robi Shapira

1.33

Ironi Tiberias

1.83

allows per match

Robi Shapira

2.33

Ironi Tiberias

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Robi Shapira+0.00on par

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Robi Shapira ↓

Ironi Tiberias →

0–05%

0–111%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Robi Shapira or draw

34%

Robi Shapira or Ironi Tiberias

80%

Draw or Ironi Tiberias

86%

Winning margin

Robi Shapira wins by 2+

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Robi Shapira 1+ goals

56%

Robi Shapira 2+ goals

20%

Robi Shapira 3+ goals

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals

87%

Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals

61%

Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Robi Shapira (draw refunded)

17%

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Robi Shapira at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Robi Shapira attack 1.33 + Ironi Tiberias defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.83 + Robi Shapira defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Robi Shapira scores more

14%

level

20%

Ironi Tiberias scores more

66%

Ironi Tiberias at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff