Robi Shapira 1–3 Hapoel Kfar Kana: Result & Stats

Robi Shapira

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Kfar Kana

Unknown 78'

S. Shaker 90+10', 85'

Khirbawi 81'

4/1/2022

League #496 · North - 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Robi Shapira42%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Kfar Kana32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Robi ShapiraExpected goals in this matchHapoel Kfar Kana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.23

Robi Shapira

1.45

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.23

Robi Shapira creates 18% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

1.20

creates per match

1.17

1.30

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Robi Shapira

1.20

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.17

allows per match

Robi Shapira

1.30

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Robi Shapira+0.00on par

Hapoel Kfar Kana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Robi Shapira ↓

Hapoel Kfar Kana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Robi Shapira or draw

68%

Robi Shapira or Hapoel Kfar Kana

74%

Draw or Hapoel Kfar Kana

58%

Winning margin

Robi Shapira wins by 2+

20%

Hapoel Kfar Kana wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Robi Shapira 1+ goals

77%

Robi Shapira 2+ goals

42%

Robi Shapira 3+ goals

18%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 1+ goals

71%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 2+ goals

35%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Robi Shapira (draw refunded)

57%

Hapoel Kfar Kana (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Robi Shapira at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Hapoel Kfar Kana away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Robi Shapira attack 1.20 + Hapoel Kfar Kana defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.45

Hapoel Kfar Kana attack 1.17 + Robi Shapira defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Robi Shapira scores more

42%

level

26%

Hapoel Kfar Kana scores more

32%

Robi Shapira at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Robi Shapira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

78'

81'

Khirbawi

85'

S. Shaker

90+10'

S. Shaker

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff