Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United — A-League 2014
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 110+ matches
Melbourne Victory43%
Adelaide United34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Melbourne Victory creates 14% more chances
Season form · 111 home / 110 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over62
- Under38
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes64
- No36
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Melbourne Victory ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Melbourne Victory at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.36 · 111 matches
Adelaide United away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.79 · 110 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Melbourne Victory attack 1.62 + Adelaide United defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71
Adelaide United attack 1.63 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Melbourne Victory at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Melbourne Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Perth Glory FC
Sydney FCMelbourne VictoryAdelaide United
Melbourne City
Wellington Phoenix
Newcastle Jets FC
Western Sydney
Brisbane Roar FC
Central Coast Mariners FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Melbourne Victory host Adelaide United on Friday, 28 November 2014 at 08:40. The match is part of the A-League 2014/2015 season.
A-League: Melbourne Victory 3–2 Adelaide United
Melbourne Victory beat Adelaide United 3-2 in A-League on November 28, 2014.
Goals: N. Boogaard (7' o.g.), A. Mabil (14'), Cirio (16' o.g.), L. Broxham (32'), M. Carrusca (37' pen).
The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.