Adelaide United 3–2 Melbourne Victory

Adelaide United

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Melbourne Victory

1/18/2025

A-League · Round 15Coopers Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Adelaide United42%

×Draw24%

Melbourne Victory34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide UnitedExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Victory

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.42

Adelaide United

1.60

Melbourne Victory

1.42

Adelaide United creates 13% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 109 away

1.77

creates per match

1.36

1.48

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Adelaide United

1.77

Melbourne Victory

1.36

allows per match

Adelaide United

1.48

Melbourne Victory

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide United+0.00on par

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide United ↓

Melbourne Victory →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Adelaide United or draw

66%

Adelaide United or Melbourne Victory

76%

Draw or Melbourne Victory

58%

Winning margin

Adelaide United wins by 2+

21%

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Adelaide United 1+ goals

80%

Adelaide United 2+ goals

47%

Adelaide United 3+ goals

22%

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals

76%

Melbourne Victory 2+ goals

41%

Melbourne Victory 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Adelaide United (draw refunded)

55%

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide United at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.48 · 111 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide United attack 1.77 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.60

Melbourne Victory attack 1.36 + Adelaide United defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Adelaide United scores more

42%

level

24%

Melbourne Victory scores more

34%

Adelaide United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Adelaide United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff