Roasso Kumamoto 2–1 Tokushima Vortis

Roasso Kumamoto

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tokushima Vortis

3/4/2018

J2 League · Round 2Egao Kenko Stadium (Kumamoto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Roasso Kumamoto30%

×Draw27%

Tokushima Vortis43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Roasso KumamotoExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.35

Roasso Kumamoto

1.09

Tokushima Vortis

1.35

Tokushima Vortis creates 24% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 149 away

1.18

creates per match

1.19

1.51

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Roasso Kumamoto

1.18

Tokushima Vortis

1.19

allows per match

Roasso Kumamoto

1.51

Tokushima Vortis

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roasso Kumamoto ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Roasso Kumamoto or draw

57%

Roasso Kumamoto or Tokushima Vortis

73%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

70%

Winning margin

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+

12%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals

66%

Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals

30%

Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals

10%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

74%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

39%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)

41%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roasso Kumamoto at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.51 · 108 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.01 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.18 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Roasso Kumamoto scores more

30%

level

27%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

43%

Tokushima Vortis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff