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RNK Split vs Urania Baška Voda — Third NL - Jug 2019

RNK Split
RNK Split
FT
3 – 0
Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
9/18/2019Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 4Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

RNK Split60%
×Draw22%
Urania Baška Voda18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RNK Split
1.90
Urania Baška Voda
0.91

RNK Split creates 109% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

RNK Split
1.67
Urania Baška Voda
0.81

allows per match

RNK Split
1.00
Urania Baška Voda
2.12

finishing

RNK Split+0.00on par
Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RNK Split ↓

Urania Baška Voda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

RNK Split or draw
82%
RNK Split or Urania Baška Voda
78%
Draw or Urania Baška Voda
40%

Winning margin

RNK Split wins by 2+
36%
Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

RNK Split 1+ goals
85%
RNK Split 2+ goals
56%
RNK Split 3+ goals
29%
Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
60%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
23%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

RNK Split (draw refunded)
77%
Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RNK Split at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 57 matches

Urania Baška Voda away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.12 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RNK Split attack 1.67 + Urania Baška Voda defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.90

Urania Baška Voda attack 0.81 + RNK Split defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

RNK Split scores more
60%
level
22%
Urania Baška Voda scores more
18%

RNK Split at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "RNK Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RNK Split vs Urania Baška Voda

RNK Split beat Urania Baška Voda 3-0 in Third NL - Jug on September 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Park mladeži in Split.