RNK Split 1–1 Sloga Mravince: Result & Stats

RNK Split

FT

1 – 1

Sloga Mravince

4/22/2023

Third NL - Jug · South - 25Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

RNK Split50%

×Draw24%

Sloga Mravince26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RNK SplitExpected goals in this matchSloga Mravince

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.13

RNK Split

1.66

Sloga Mravince

1.13

RNK Split creates 47% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 102 away

1.67

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

RNK Split

1.67

Sloga Mravince

1.25

allows per match

RNK Split

1.00

Sloga Mravince

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RNK Split+0.00on par

Sloga Mravince+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RNK Split ↓

Sloga Mravince →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

RNK Split or draw

74%

RNK Split or Sloga Mravince

76%

Draw or Sloga Mravince

50%

Winning margin

RNK Split wins by 2+

26%

Sloga Mravince wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

RNK Split 1+ goals

81%

RNK Split 2+ goals

49%

RNK Split 3+ goals

23%

Sloga Mravince 1+ goals

68%

Sloga Mravince 2+ goals

31%

Sloga Mravince 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

RNK Split (draw refunded)

66%

Sloga Mravince (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RNK Split at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 57 matches

Sloga Mravince away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.65 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RNK Split attack 1.67 + Sloga Mravince defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sloga Mravince attack 1.25 + RNK Split defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

RNK Split scores more

50%

level

24%

Sloga Mravince scores more

26%

RNK Split at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "RNK Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff