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RNK Split vs Otok — Third NL - Jug 2019

RNK Split
RNK Split
FT
2 – 2
Otok
Otok
8/27/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 1Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

RNK Split66%
×Draw19%
Otok15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RNK Split
2.19
Otok
0.94

RNK Split creates 133% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 33 away

creates per match

RNK Split
1.67
Otok
0.88

allows per match

RNK Split
1.00
Otok
2.70

finishing

RNK Split+0.00on par
Otok+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RNK Split ↓

Otok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

RNK Split or draw
85%
RNK Split or Otok
81%
Draw or Otok
34%

Winning margin

RNK Split wins by 2+
42%
Otok wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

RNK Split 1+ goals
89%
RNK Split 2+ goals
64%
RNK Split 3+ goals
37%
Otok 1+ goals
61%
Otok 2+ goals
24%
Otok 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RNK Split (draw refunded)
81%
Otok (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RNK Split at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 57 matches

Otok away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RNK Split attack 1.67 + Otok defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.19

Otok attack 0.88 + RNK Split defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

RNK Split scores more
66%
level
19%
Otok scores more
15%

RNK Split at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "RNK Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: RNK Split 2–2 Otok

RNK Split and Otok drew 2-2 in Third NL - Jug on August 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Park mladeži in Split.