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RNK Split vs Kamen Ivanbegovina — Third NL - Jug 2019

RNK Split
RNK Split
FT
4 – 0
Kamen Ivanbegovina
Kamen Ivanbegovina
10/15/2022Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 9Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

RNK Split67%
×Draw19%
Kamen Ivanbegovina14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RNK Split
2.19
Kamen Ivanbegovina
0.90

RNK Split creates 143% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 102 away

creates per match

RNK Split
1.67
Kamen Ivanbegovina
0.80

allows per match

RNK Split
1.00
Kamen Ivanbegovina
2.71

finishing

RNK Split+0.00on par
Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RNK Split ↓

Kamen Ivanbegovina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

RNK Split or draw
86%
RNK Split or Kamen Ivanbegovina
81%
Draw or Kamen Ivanbegovina
33%

Winning margin

RNK Split wins by 2+
43%
Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

RNK Split 1+ goals
89%
RNK Split 2+ goals
64%
RNK Split 3+ goals
37%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals
59%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals
23%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

RNK Split (draw refunded)
82%
Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RNK Split at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 57 matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.71 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RNK Split attack 1.67 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.19

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 0.80 + RNK Split defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

RNK Split scores more
67%
level
19%
Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more
14%

RNK Split at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "RNK Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: RNK Split 4–0 Kamen Ivanbegovina

RNK Split beat Kamen Ivanbegovina 4-0 in Third NL - Jug on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Park mladeži in Split.