RNK Split 1–0 Hrvace: Result & Stats

RNK Split

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hrvace

5/8/2022

Third NL - Jug · South - 31Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

RNK Split51%

×Draw25%

Hrvace24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RNK SplitExpected goals in this matchHrvace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.04

RNK Split

1.64

Hrvace

1.04

RNK Split creates 58% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 42 away

1.67

creates per match

1.07

1.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

RNK Split

1.67

Hrvace

1.07

allows per match

RNK Split

1.00

Hrvace

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RNK Split+0.00on par

Hrvace+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RNK Split ↓

Hrvace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

RNK Split or draw

76%

RNK Split or Hrvace

75%

Draw or Hrvace

49%

Winning margin

RNK Split wins by 2+

27%

Hrvace wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

RNK Split 1+ goals

81%

RNK Split 2+ goals

49%

RNK Split 3+ goals

23%

Hrvace 1+ goals

65%

Hrvace 2+ goals

28%

Hrvace 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

RNK Split (draw refunded)

68%

Hrvace (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RNK Split at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 57 matches

Hrvace away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RNK Split attack 1.67 + Hrvace defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Hrvace attack 1.07 + RNK Split defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

RNK Split scores more

51%

level

25%

Hrvace scores more

24%

RNK Split at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "RNK Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff