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Ørn Horten vs Halsen — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Ørn Horten
Ørn Horten
FT
5 – 1
Halsen
Halsen
9/11/20213. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 6Lystlunden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ørn Horten70%
×Draw16%
Halsen14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ørn Horten
2.75
Halsen
1.17

Ørn Horten creates 135% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ørn Horten
1.50
Halsen
1.00

allows per match

Ørn Horten
1.33
Halsen
4.00

finishing

Ørn Horten+0.00on par
Halsen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ørn Horten ↓

Halsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Ørn Horten or draw
86%
Ørn Horten or Halsen
84%
Draw or Halsen
30%

Winning margin

Ørn Horten wins by 2+
49%
Halsen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ørn Horten 1+ goals
93%
Ørn Horten 2+ goals
75%
Ørn Horten 3+ goals
51%
Halsen 1+ goals
69%
Halsen 2+ goals
33%
Halsen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ørn Horten (draw refunded)
83%
Halsen (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ørn Horten at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Halsen away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ørn Horten attack 1.50 + Halsen defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Halsen attack 1.00 + Ørn Horten defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ørn Horten scores more
70%
level
16%
Halsen scores more
14%

Ørn Horten at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ørn Horten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Ørn Horten 5–1 Halsen

Ørn Horten beat Halsen 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Lystlunden Stadion in Horten.