Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ørn Horten vs Fredrikstad II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Ørn Horten
Ørn Horten
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Fredrikstad II
Fredrikstad II
4/19/20253. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 3Lystlunden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ørn Horten63%
×Draw18%
Fredrikstad II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ørn Horten
2.56
Fredrikstad II
1.36

Ørn Horten creates 88% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 26 away

creates per match

Ørn Horten
2.58
Fredrikstad II
1.31

allows per match

Ørn Horten
1.42
Fredrikstad II
2.54

finishing

Ørn Horten+0.00on par
Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ørn Horten ↓

Fredrikstad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Ørn Horten or draw
81%
Ørn Horten or Fredrikstad II
82%
Draw or Fredrikstad II
37%

Winning margin

Ørn Horten wins by 2+
42%
Fredrikstad II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ørn Horten 1+ goals
92%
Ørn Horten 2+ goals
72%
Ørn Horten 3+ goals
46%
Fredrikstad II 1+ goals
74%
Fredrikstad II 2+ goals
39%
Fredrikstad II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ørn Horten (draw refunded)
77%
Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ørn Horten at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ørn Horten attack 2.58 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.56

Fredrikstad II attack 1.31 + Ørn Horten defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ørn Horten scores more
63%
level
18%
Fredrikstad II scores more
19%

Ørn Horten at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ørn Horten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ørn Horten vs Fredrikstad II

Ørn Horten beat Fredrikstad II 6-2 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Lystlunden Stadion.