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Ørn Horten vs Flint — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Ørn Horten
Ørn Horten
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Flint
Flint
5/3/20253. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 5Lystlunden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ørn Horten58%
×Draw19%
Flint23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ørn Horten
2.52
Flint
1.55

Ørn Horten creates 63% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ørn Horten
2.58
Flint
1.69

allows per match

Ørn Horten
1.42
Flint
2.46

finishing

Ørn Horten+0.00on par
Flint+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ørn Horten ↓

Flint →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Ørn Horten or draw
77%
Ørn Horten or Flint
81%
Draw or Flint
42%

Winning margin

Ørn Horten wins by 2+
38%
Flint wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ørn Horten 1+ goals
92%
Ørn Horten 2+ goals
71%
Ørn Horten 3+ goals
45%
Flint 1+ goals
79%
Flint 2+ goals
46%
Flint 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ørn Horten (draw refunded)
72%
Flint (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ørn Horten at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Flint away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ørn Horten attack 2.58 + Flint defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.52

Flint attack 1.69 + Ørn Horten defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ørn Horten scores more
58%
level
19%
Flint scores more
23%

Ørn Horten at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ørn Horten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Ørn Horten 2–0 Flint

Ørn Horten beat Flint 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Lystlunden Stadion.