Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ørn Horten vs Aalesund II — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Ørn Horten
Ørn Horten
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Aalesund II
Aalesund II
7/11/20232. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Lystlunden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ørn Horten55%
×Draw23%
Aalesund II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ørn Horten
1.81
Aalesund II
1.05

Ørn Horten creates 72% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ørn Horten
1.71
Aalesund II
0.85

allows per match

Ørn Horten
1.26
Aalesund II
1.92

finishing

Ørn Horten+0.00on par
Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ørn Horten ↓

Aalesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ørn Horten or draw
78%
Ørn Horten or Aalesund II
77%
Draw or Aalesund II
45%

Winning margin

Ørn Horten wins by 2+
31%
Aalesund II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ørn Horten 1+ goals
84%
Ørn Horten 2+ goals
54%
Ørn Horten 3+ goals
27%
Aalesund II 1+ goals
65%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
28%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ørn Horten (draw refunded)
72%
Aalesund II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ørn Horten at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ørn Horten attack 1.71 + Aalesund II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.81

Aalesund II attack 0.85 + Ørn Horten defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ørn Horten scores more
55%
level
23%
Aalesund II scores more
22%

Ørn Horten at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ørn Horten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 1: Ørn Horten 1–2 Aalesund II

Aalesund II beat Ørn Horten 2-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on July 11, 2023.

The match was played at Lystlunden Stadion in Horten.