RM Hamm Benfica vs US Mondorf-les-bains — National Division 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 53+ matches
RM Hamm Benfica27%
US Mondorf-les-bains49%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
US Mondorf-les-bains creates 40% more chances
Season form · 53 home / 108 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
RM Hamm Benfica ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
RM Hamm Benfica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.19 · 53 matches
US Mondorf-les-bains away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.53 · 108 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
RM Hamm Benfica attack 1.00 + US Mondorf-les-bains defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27
US Mondorf-les-bains attack 1.38 + RM Hamm Benfica defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.78
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
US Mondorf-les-bains at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "US Mondorf-les-bains will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Atert Bissen
FC Differdange 03US Mondorf-les-bains
UNA Strassen
F91 Dudelange
AS Jeunesse Esch
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
UN Kaerjeng 97
US Hostert
Victoria Rosport
Progres Niederkorn
Swift Hesperange
Jeunesse Canach
Mamer
Union Titus Petange
Rodange 91
Résidence Walferdange
WiltzIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
RM Hamm Benfica host US Mondorf-les-bains on Sunday, 12 May 2019 at 14:00. The match is part of the National Division 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: RM Hamm Benfica vs US Mondorf-les-bains
RM Hamm Benfica beat US Mondorf-les-bains 2-1 in National Division on May 12, 2019.
Goals: P. Arantes (10'), A. Scanzano (49'), B. Cabral Barbosa (64' pen).
The match was played at Terrain de Football Cents.