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RM Hamm Benfica vs AS Jeunesse Esch — National Division 2018

RM Hamm Benfica
RM Hamm Benfica
FT
0 – 2
AS Jeunesse Esch
AS Jeunesse Esch
4/28/2019National DivisionNational Division · Round 22Terrain de Football Cents (Lëtzebuerg (Luxembourg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

RM Hamm Benfica26%
×Draw23%
AS Jeunesse Esch51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RM Hamm Benfica
1.19
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.77

AS Jeunesse Esch creates 49% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 120 away

creates per match

RM Hamm Benfica
1.00
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.34

allows per match

RM Hamm Benfica
2.19
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.39

finishing

RM Hamm Benfica+0.00on par
AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RM Hamm Benfica ↓

AS Jeunesse Esch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

RM Hamm Benfica or draw
49%
RM Hamm Benfica or AS Jeunesse Esch
77%
Draw or AS Jeunesse Esch
74%

Winning margin

RM Hamm Benfica wins by 2+
10%
AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

RM Hamm Benfica 1+ goals
70%
RM Hamm Benfica 2+ goals
33%
RM Hamm Benfica 3+ goals
12%
AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals
83%
AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals
53%
AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

RM Hamm Benfica (draw refunded)
34%
AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RM Hamm Benfica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.19 · 53 matches

AS Jeunesse Esch away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.39 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RM Hamm Benfica attack 1.00 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.34 + RM Hamm Benfica defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

RM Hamm Benfica scores more
26%
level
23%
AS Jeunesse Esch scores more
51%

AS Jeunesse Esch at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
Omar Natami
85'
Thomas Papadopulos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RM Hamm Benfica vs AS Jeunesse Esch

AS Jeunesse Esch beat RM Hamm Benfica 2-0 in National Division on April 28, 2019.

Goals: Omar Natami (32'), Thomas Papadopulos (85').

The match was played at Terrain de Football Cents (Lëtzebuerg (Luxembourg)).