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RKC vs Thunder Bay Chill — USL League Two 2018

RKC
RKC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Thunder Bay Chill
Thunder Bay Chill
6/17/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 9Pritchard Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

RKC48%
×Draw22%
Thunder Bay Chill30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RKC
1.93
Thunder Bay Chill
1.48

RKC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 21 away

creates per match

RKC
2.67
Thunder Bay Chill
1.71

allows per match

RKC
1.25
Thunder Bay Chill
1.19

finishing

RKC+0.00on par
Thunder Bay Chill+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RKC ↓

Thunder Bay Chill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

RKC or draw
70%
RKC or Thunder Bay Chill
78%
Draw or Thunder Bay Chill
52%

Winning margin

RKC wins by 2+
27%
Thunder Bay Chill wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

RKC 1+ goals
85%
RKC 2+ goals
57%
RKC 3+ goals
30%
Thunder Bay Chill 1+ goals
77%
Thunder Bay Chill 2+ goals
43%
Thunder Bay Chill 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

RKC (draw refunded)
62%
Thunder Bay Chill (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RKC at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

Thunder Bay Chill away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RKC attack 2.67 + Thunder Bay Chill defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.93

Thunder Bay Chill attack 1.71 + RKC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

RKC scores more
48%
level
22%
Thunder Bay Chill scores more
30%

RKC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "RKC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: RKC 1–3 Thunder Bay Chill

Thunder Bay Chill beat RKC 3-1 in USL League Two on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at Pritchard Park in Racine, Wisconsin.