RKAV Volendam 3–1 VVOG: Result & Stats

RKAV Volendam

FT

3 – 1

VVOG

8/20/2022

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 1KWABO-stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

RKAV Volendam60%

×Draw19%

VVOG21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RKAV VolendamExpected goals in this matchVVOG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.41

RKAV Volendam

2.46

VVOG

1.41

RKAV Volendam creates 74% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 46 away

2.50

creates per match

1.35

1.47

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

RKAV Volendam

2.50

VVOG

1.35

allows per match

RKAV Volendam

1.47

VVOG

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RKAV Volendam+0.00on par

VVOG+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RKAV Volendam ↓

VVOG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

RKAV Volendam or draw

79%

RKAV Volendam or VVOG

81%

Draw or VVOG

40%

Winning margin

RKAV Volendam wins by 2+

39%

VVOG wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

RKAV Volendam 1+ goals

91%

RKAV Volendam 2+ goals

70%

RKAV Volendam 3+ goals

44%

VVOG 1+ goals

76%

VVOG 2+ goals

41%

VVOG 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

RKAV Volendam (draw refunded)

74%

VVOG (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RKAV Volendam at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

VVOG away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RKAV Volendam attack 2.50 + VVOG defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.46

VVOG attack 1.35 + RKAV Volendam defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

RKAV Volendam scores more

60%

level

19%

VVOG scores more

21%

RKAV Volendam at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "RKAV Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff