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RKAV Volendam vs URK — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

RKAV Volendam
RKAV Volendam
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
URK
URK
9/24/2022Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 8KWABO-stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

RKAV Volendam55%
×Draw20%
URK25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RKAV Volendam
2.37
URK
1.56

RKAV Volendam creates 52% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

RKAV Volendam
2.50
URK
1.65

allows per match

RKAV Volendam
1.47
URK
2.24

finishing

RKAV Volendam+0.00on par
URK+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RKAV Volendam ↓

URK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

RKAV Volendam or draw
75%
RKAV Volendam or URK
80%
Draw or URK
45%

Winning margin

RKAV Volendam wins by 2+
34%
URK wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

RKAV Volendam 1+ goals
91%
RKAV Volendam 2+ goals
68%
RKAV Volendam 3+ goals
42%
URK 1+ goals
79%
URK 2+ goals
46%
URK 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

RKAV Volendam (draw refunded)
69%
URK (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RKAV Volendam at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

URK away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.24 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RKAV Volendam attack 2.50 + URK defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.37

URK attack 1.65 + RKAV Volendam defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

RKAV Volendam scores more
55%
level
20%
URK scores more
25%

RKAV Volendam at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "RKAV Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RKAV Volendam vs URK

RKAV Volendam beat URK 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at KWABO-stadion in Volendam.