Rizespor 5–1 Yeni Malatyaspor: Result & Stats

Rizespor

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Yeni Malatyaspor

2/4/2023

1. Lig · Round 23Çaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rizespor74%

×Draw15%

Yeni Malatyaspor10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RizesporExpected goals in this matchYeni Malatyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

0.85

Rizespor

2.60

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.85

Rizespor creates 206% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 33 away

2.06

creates per match

0.70

1.00

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Rizespor

2.06

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.70

allows per match

Rizespor

1.00

Yeni Malatyaspor

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rizespor+0.00on par

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw

90%

Rizespor or Yeni Malatyaspor

85%

Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor

26%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+

53%

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals

92%

Rizespor 2+ goals

73%

Rizespor 3+ goals

47%

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

57%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

21%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)

88%

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 2.06 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.60

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.70 + Rizespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Rizespor scores more

74%

level

15%

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

10%

Rizespor at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Rizespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff