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Rizespor vs Vanspor FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Rizespor
Rizespor
FT
6 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
12/17/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundÇaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rizespor83%
×Draw11%
Vanspor FK6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rizespor
3.04
Vanspor FK
0.72

Rizespor creates 322% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

Rizespor
2.94
Vanspor FK
0.57

allows per match

Rizespor
0.88
Vanspor FK
3.14

finishing

Rizespor+0.00on par
Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Vanspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw
94%
Rizespor or Vanspor FK
89%
Draw or Vanspor FK
17%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+
64%
Vanspor FK wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals
95%
Rizespor 2+ goals
80%
Rizespor 3+ goals
57%
Vanspor FK 1+ goals
51%
Vanspor FK 2+ goals
16%
Vanspor FK 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)
93%
Vanspor FK (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Vanspor FK away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 2.94 + Vanspor FK defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 3.04

Vanspor FK attack 0.57 + Rizespor defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Rizespor scores more
83%
level
11%
Vanspor FK scores more
6%

Rizespor at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Rizespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rizespor vs Vanspor FK

Rizespor beat Vanspor FK 6-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 17, 2024.

The match was played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Rize.